The Guardian Me­dia elec­tion poll pub­lished in to­day’s Sun­day Guardian was con­duct­ed be­tween April 10 and 13. Apart from the re­sults pub­lished to­day, the num­bers be­hind the num­bers make some in­ter­est­ing read­ing.

With the UNC coali­tion scor­ing 45 per cent in Trinidad and the PNM scor­ing 30 per cent, the third par­ties, such as the Pa­tri­ot­ic Front (PF) (7%) and the Na­tion­al Trans­for­ma­tion Al­liance (NTA) (6%) are chalk­ing up a rea­son­ably sized in­put in­to the num­bers for the two main par­ties (PNM and UNC), which is split­ting the votes.

Men and women are even­ly split in their sup­port for the UNC Coali­tion (44.7 % and 44.8 % re­spec­tive­ly), while more women (33.1 %) than men (26.6%) are sup­port­ing the PNM. Mar­gin­al­ly more women (6.7%) than men (6.3%) are sup­port­ing the PF, while the NTA has 7.3% men as against 5.7% women sup­port­ing it.

In Trinidad, af­ter omit­ting the 10% who have de­clared them­selves to be sup­port­ing oth­er par­ties/can­di­dates, the break­down in re­li­gion makes for in­ter­est­ing read­ing. Among Ro­man Catholics, 40.1% are sup­port­ing the PNM, 32.6% are sup­port­ing the UNC Coali­tion, 4.7% are sup­port­ing the PF, and 7.8% are sup­port­ing the NTA.

Among An­gli­cans, 42.2% are sup­port­ing the PNM, 28.1% are sup­port­ing the UNC, 5.9% are sup­port­ing the PF, and 11.9% are sup­port­ing the NTA.

How­ev­er, when the Pres­by­te­ri­ans are mea­sured, 53.1% are sup­port­ing the UNC coali­tion, 28.1% are sup­port­ing the PNM, 9.4% are sup­port­ing the PF, and 3.9% are sup­port­ing the NTA.

When the Bap­tists are mea­sured, 66.9% are sup­port­ing the PNM, 14.1% are sup­port­ing the UNC coali­tion, 4.2% are sup­port­ing the PF, and 4.9% are sup­port­ing the NTA.

Among the Sev­enth Day Ad­ven­tists, 55% are sup­port­ing the PNM, 21.7% are sup­port­ing the UNC coali­tion, 4.2% are sup­port­ing the PF, and 6.7% are sup­port­ing the NTA.

The Pen­te­costals had 41.8% sup­port­ing the UNC coali­tion, 36.1% sup­port­ing the PNM, 8.2% sup­port­ing the PF, and 3.2% sup­port­ing the NTA.

When the Hin­du re­spon­dents were mea­sured, 75.2% of them are sup­port­ing the UNC coali­tion, 8.3% are sup­port­ing the PF, 5.0% are sup­port­ing the NTA, and 3.8% are sup­port­ing the PNM.

Among the Mus­lims, 61.8% are sup­port­ing the UNC coali­tion, 13% are sup­port­ing the PNM, 9.9% are sup­port­ing the NTA, and 6.1% are sup­port­ing the PF.

In shift­ing to the mea­sure­ments for eth­nic­i­ty in Trinidad, 55% of Afro-Trinida­di­ans are sup­port­ing the PNM, 20.5% are sup­port­ing the UNC coali­tion, 5.8% are sup­port­ing the NTA, and 4.9% are sup­port­ing the PF.

Among In­do-Trinida­di­ans, 72.3% are sup­port­ing the UNC coali­tion, 7.8% are sup­port­ing the PF, 6.7% are sup­port­ing the PNM, and 4.8% are sup­port­ing the NTA.

37.8% of Mixed peo­ple sup­port the PNM, 28.8% sup­port the UNC coali­tion, 10.5% sup­port the NTA, and 6.9% sup­port the PF.

These de­mo­graph­ics show that the UNC coali­tion is cut­ting across gen­der, re­li­gion, and eth­nic­i­ty in cat­e­gories that they need to hold in or­der to do well. The PNM has shown some slip­page in cat­e­gories that they have ei­ther dom­i­nat­ed or been clos­er to the UNC in the past. Ro­man Catholic, An­gli­can, Bap­tist, and Sev­enth Day Ad­ven­tists sup­port for the PNM in Trinidad and Pres­by­ter­ian, Hin­du, and Mus­lim sup­port for the UNC coali­tion stand out. The Pen­te­costal sup­port is split at 41.8% in favour of the UNC coali­tion and 36.1% for the PNM.

Over in To­ba­go, with the PNM lead­ing with 47% over the TPP with 32%, the PDP scor­ing 9% and 4% say­ing their view was pri­vate, and 3% not sure, it in­di­cates that 7% is float­ing around, where­as these last two re­sponse cat­e­gories did not arise in Trinidad.

42.2% of men and 51.6% of women are sup­port­ing the PNM, and 33.3% of men and 29.9% of women are sup­port­ing the TPP, while 10% of men and 8.2% of women are sup­port­ing the PDP.

The ex­am­i­na­tion of the re­li­gion sta­tis­tics in To­ba­go makes for in­ter­est­ing read­ing among the Chris­t­ian de­nom­i­na­tions, which are sta­tis­ti­cal­ly dom­i­nant on the is­land.

67.6% of Ro­man Catholics are sup­port­ing the PNM, 17.6% are sup­port­ing the TPP, while 5.9% are sup­port­ing the PDP.

Among the An­gli­cans, 51.5% are sup­port­ing the PNM, 33.3% are sup­port­ing the TPP, and 4.5% are sup­port­ing the PDP.

The Pres­by­te­ri­ans were split 40% equal­ly be­tween the PNM and the TPP, while 57% of Bap­tists sup­port the PNM, 24.1% sup­port the TPP, and 10.1% sup­port the PDP.

Among the Sev­enth-Day Ad­ven­tists, there is a sig­nif­i­cant shift with 51% sup­port­ing the TPP, 28.8% sup­port­ing the PNM, and 9.6% sup­port­ing the PDP.

Among the Pen­te­costals, 57.5% sup­port the PNM, 21.7% sup­port the TPP, and 12.3% sup­port the PDP.

The break­down among the dom­i­nant Chris­t­ian re­li­gions in To­ba­go shows the PNM lead­ing in all cat­e­gories ex­cept among the Sev­enth-Day Ad­ven­tists, while the Pres­by­te­ri­ans, who are not as sta­tis­ti­cal­ly sig­nif­i­cant, are di­vid­ed equal­ly.

Split vot­ing is at work.

Prof Hamid Ghany is a Pro­fes­sor of Con­sti­tu­tion­al Af­fairs and Par­lia­men­tary Stud­ies at The Uni­ver­si­ty of the West In­dies (UWI). He was al­so ap­point­ed an Hon­orary Pro­fes­sor of The UWI up­on his re­tire­ment in Oc­to­ber 2021. He con­tin­ues his re­search and pub­li­ca­tions and al­so does some teach­ing at The UWI. He can be reached at hamid.ghany@sta.uwi.edu