For­mer Min­is­ter of Trade and In­dus­try and for­mer Min­is­ter in the Min­istry of Fi­nance, Mar­i­ano Browne, warns that low gas pro­duc­tion com­bined with ma­jor de­clines in prices and a chang­ing en­er­gy en­vi­ron­ment are prov­ing to be and will con­tin­ue to be a ma­jor chal­lenge in any re­cov­ery in the en­er­gy sec­tor.

Ac­cord­ing to Mar­i­ano Browne, the na­tion­al econ­o­my has been in de­pres­sion for rough­ly six years, pri­mar­i­ly be­cause of mis­for­tunes in the en­er­gy sec­tor, in terms of glob­al pric­ing volatil­i­ty and na­tion­al pro­duc­tion short­falls.

Browne told Guardian Me­dia there is still a long way to go in the en­er­gy sec­tor. 

“We know that cli­mate change is an is­sue. We know that gas is a clean­er burn­ing fu­el, but what we’re al­so see­ing is that re­new­ables al­so have been grow­ing sub­stan­tial­ly. So, there are some threats on the hori­zon to mar­ket share,” he ex­plained.  “We’re see­ing the volatil­i­ty of the gas price com­ing down to the end of the year, as well.  So, you can’t just hang your hat on the en­er­gy sec­tor for re­cov­ery.” 

“Some ar­eas in the non-en­er­gy ex­port sec­tor have done well, but not enough, and that’s where a lot more fo­cus has to be geared, go­ing for­ward,” he added.

The for­mer min­is­ter ob­serves that the COVID-19 pan­dem­ic has not helped mat­ters.

“We’ve al­so had the sup­ply im­bal­ances that have come as a re­sult of COVID.  If peo­ple aren’t go­ing to work, pro­duc­tion lev­els in dif­fer­ent fac­to­ries in dif­fer­ent ar­eas around the world will have dropped off, and we’ve seen it,” he points out. 

“That’s one of the rea­sons why in­fla­tion has come to the fore, part­ly be­cause of chang­ing de­mand con­di­tions as a re­sult of COVID, as well as the fact that there have been what we can con­sid­er to be bot­tle­necks in sup­ply, which have caused prices to rise,” Browne said.

The for­mer min­is­ter warns the cur­rent pe­ri­od is a dif­fi­cult one not on­ly for Trinidad and To­ba­go, but the en­tire world.  He is con­cerned that the debt-to-GDP ra­tio is hit­ting the 90-per­centile range, and that the coun­try can­not con­tin­ue to run bud­getary deficits. 

Mar­i­ano Browne sug­gests the two na­tion­al watch­words guid­ing every­one in the new year should be PRU­DENCE and RE­SILIENCE.  He says while there will be some eco­nom­ic growth, 2022 will be a chal­leng­ing year for every­one, and man­ag­ing the COVID-19 threat will be a crit­i­cal fac­tor.

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Mar­i­ano Browne was guest on CNC3’s The Morn­ing Brew show, on Fri­day 31 De­cem­ber 2021.