PROF HAMID GHANY

Res­i­dent Po­lit­i­cal Sci­en­tist

hamid.ghany@sta.uwi.edu

Vote split­ting and man­u­fac­tured ma­jori­ties have long in­flu­enced the po­lit­i­cal land­scape of T&T, shap­ing elec­tion out­comes in ways that of­ten do not re­flect the pop­u­lar vote. Un­der the first-past-the-post sys­tem, gov­ern­ments have fre­quent­ly been formed with a ma­jor­i­ty of seats while se­cur­ing less than 50 per cent of the votes cast.

This pat­tern has been ev­i­dent in mul­ti­ple gen­er­al elec­tions in 1991, 1995, 2001, 2007, 2010 and 2020, where di­vid­ed op­po­si­tion votes or sys­temic faults have ei­ther hand­ed vic­to­ry to a sin­gle par­ty or forced un­ex­pect­ed po­lit­i­cal re­align­ments.

From the rise of the UNC in 1991 to the coali­tion strat­e­gy of the Peo­ple’s Part­ner­ship in 2010, the im­pact of vote split­ting or tac­ti­cal avoid­ance has been un­de­ni­able.

In 1991, 11 con­stituen­cies were de­cid­ed by split votes, while in 2007, the num­ber was 14.

In both of those elec­tions, the PNM were able to win a ma­jor­i­ty of seats and form the Gov­ern­ment with less than 50 per cent of the votes cast.

In 1995, Patrick Man­ning called an ear­ly elec­tion at a time when there was a promi­nent opin­ion poll that re­vealed that the PNM was more pop­u­lar than in 1991. The poll was ac­cu­rate, but the out­come was ad­verse to the PNM. In 1991, the PNM got 45.07 per cent of the votes to win 21 of the 36 seats. In 1995, the PNM in­creased its vote share to 48.76 per cent and lost four seats de­spite gain­ing an ad­di­tion­al 3.7 per cent of the votes cast.

In 2007, the Con­gress of the Peo­ple (COP) got 22.71 per cent of the votes and did not win a sin­gle seat, while the UNC got 29.85 per cent for 15 seats. The PNM won the elec­tion with 45.99 per cent for 26 out of 41 seats.

These trends have al­so been seen in To­ba­go House of As­sem­bly elec­tions. In the 2001 THA elec­tions, the PNM won 8-4 with 46.73 per cent of the votes cast. If the then To­ba­go-bred PEP and the UNC had not con­test­ed the elec­tions, the NAR might have won it 7-5, as there were split votes in Black Rock/Whim, L’Anse Four­mi/Spey­side and Belle Gar­den/Good­wood, which could have been favourable to the NAR with­out those splits.

With an­oth­er elec­tion on the hori­zon and sev­er­al par­ties poised to con­test To­ba­go’s two par­lia­men­tary seats, the stage is set once again for a crit­i­cal ques­tion: who will di­vide the vote, and who will ben­e­fit?

1991 gen­er­al elec­tion

PNM (45.07% votes-21 seats), UNC (29.2%-13 seats), NAR (24.62%-2 seats). Turnout: 65.76%.

In this elec­tion, the UNC that was formed in 1989 was mak­ing its first for­ay in­to the gen­er­al elec­tion are­na. The NAR had been frac­tured by the split in 1988/1989 out of which the UNC was born. De­spite win­ning a size­able amount of votes in T&T, the NAR on­ly won the two seats in To­ba­go, while the UNC won 13 seats in Trinidad.

1995 gen­er­al elec­tion

PNM (48.76%-17 seats), UNC (45.76%-17 seats), NAR (4.76%-2 seats). Turnout: 63.30%.

In this elec­tion, there was a hung Par­lia­ment. A key event was that the PNM in­creased its vote share from 45.07% in 1991 to 48.76% in 1995, yet lost four seats de­spite gain­ing more votes. The UNC boost­ed its share from 29.2% in 1991 to 45.76% in 1995, gain­ing four seats. This was the op­po­site of what hap­pened with the PNM. The NAR, which dropped from 24.62% in 1991 to 4.76% in 1995, still man­aged to hold on to its two To­ba­go seats de­spite con­test­ing on­ly 19 seats over­all.

2001 gen­er­al elec­tion

PNM (46.51%-18 seats), UNC (49.90%-18 seats). Turnout: 66.13%.

In this elec­tion, the re­sults end­ed in an 18-18 tie, with the UNC re­ceiv­ing 49.90% of the votes and the PNM se­cur­ing 46.51%.

The tie was bro­ken by then pres­i­dent Robin­son, who re­voked the ap­point­ment of Bas­deo Pan­day as prime min­is­ter and ap­point­ed the leader of the op­po­si­tion, Patrick Man­ning, as PM.

2007 gen­er­al elec­tion

PNM (45.99%-26 seats), UNC (29.85%-15 seats), COP (22.71%-0 seats). Turnout: 66.21%. In this elec­tion, a sig­nif­i­cant split be­tween the UNC and the new­ly formed Con­gress of the Peo­ple (COP) opened the door to a PNM vic­to­ry, with 45.99% of the votes and 26 out of 41 seats. The UNC se­cured 15 seats with 29.85% of the votes, while the COP, de­spite re­ceiv­ing 22.71% of the votes, won no seats.

2010 gen­er­al elec­tion

PNM (39.70%-12 seats out of 41), UNC (43.72%-21 seats out of 29), COP (14.12%-6 seats out of 10), TOP (2.12%-2 seats out of 2). The Peo­ple’s Part­ner­ship gov­ern­ment was formed by a su­per­sized coali­tion be­tween UNC, COP and TOP. Turnout: 69.88%.

In this elec­tion, a part­ner­ship be­tween the UNC, the COP and the To­ba­go Or­gan­i­sa­tion of the Peo­ple (TOP) was worked out ahead of the elec­tion to op­pose the PNM. This for­mu­la aimed to pre­vent vote-split­ting, which had been an is­sue in 2007. By strate­gi­cal­ly avoid­ing com­pe­ti­tion with each oth­er, the coali­tion ef­fec­tive­ly con­sol­i­dat­ed votes. As a re­sult, al­though no par­ty in­di­vid­u­al­ly se­cured more than 50% of the to­tal votes cast, the coali­tion com­bined to win 29 out of 41 seats be­cause of the strat­e­gy of tac­ti­cal avoid­ance of each oth­er which pre­vent­ed vote split­ting. This out­come was a ma­jor vic­to­ry for the coali­tion.

2020 gen­er­al elec­tion

PNM (49.05%-22 seats), UNC (47.14%-19 seats). Turnout: 58.08%.

In this elec­tion, there was a man­u­fac­tured ma­jor­i­ty in favour of the PNM, as they polled less than 50% of the votes cast and won 22 out of 41 seats. The UNC on­ly con­test­ed 39 seats in Trinidad and won 309,654 votes to win 19 seats. The PNM con­test­ed in Trinidad and in To­ba­go, se­cur­ing 322,180 votes to win 22 seats. Delv­ing deep­er in­to the cause of the man­u­fac­tured ma­jor­i­ty for the PNM, one finds that in a head-to-head matchup be­tween the UNC and the PNM cal­cu­lat­ed in Trinidad on­ly, the PNM got 305,850 votes for 20 seats as against the 309,654 votes for the UNC which got 19 seats.

Man­u­fac­tured ma­jori­ties in THA elec­tions

The 2000, 2002, and 2015 gen­er­al elec­tions were the on­ly ones that did not re­sult in man­u­fac­tured ma­jori­ties. How­ev­er, this phe­nom­e­non has not been lim­it­ed to gen­er­al elec­tions; it has al­so oc­curred in THA elec­tions, par­tic­u­lar­ly when strong third par­ties con­test­ed, such as in Jan­u­ary 2001.

In that year, there was an on­go­ing dis­pute be­tween then prime min­is­ter Bas­deo Pan­day and pres­i­dent ANR Robin­son over Robin­son’s re­fusal of Pan­day’s re­quest to ap­point sev­en de­feat­ed can­di­dates as sen­a­tors and min­is­ters.

In re­tal­i­a­tion, Pan­day de­cid­ed to in­sert the UNC in­to the THA elec­tions be­tween the NAR, the PNM and the then Peo­ple’s Em­pow­er­ment Par­ty (PEP) (not to be con­fused with the PEP of to­day). This move re­sult­ed in vote-split­ting, al­low­ing the PNM to se­cure ma­jor­i­ty con­trol of the THA. With­out the UNC and PEP, the elec­tion could have end­ed in a 7-5 vic­to­ry for the NAR, in­stead of the 8-4 vic­to­ry for the PNM.

2001 THA elec­tions

The PNM got 46.73 per cent of the votes cast, the NAR got 38.44 per cent, the UNC 7.82 per cent, and the PEP 7.01 per cent. If the UNC and the PEP had not con­test­ed that elec­tion, it is pos­si­ble that the NAR could have won Black Rock/Whim, L’Anse Four­mi/Spey­side and Belle Gar­den/Good­wood be­cause of the split votes there.

Pan­day got his re­venge on Robin­son as the NAR had been re­moved from pow­er in To­ba­go, and, on Feb­ru­ary 14, a few weeks af­ter that elec­tion on Jan­u­ary 29, 2001, Robin­son start­ed ap­point­ing de­feat­ed UNC can­di­dates as sen­a­tors and min­is­ters, as had been re­quest­ed by Pan­day since De­cem­ber 20, 2000.

In the up­com­ing gen­er­al elec­tion in To­ba­go, there are like­ly to be five par­ties con­test­ing the two seats, name­ly the PNM, the To­ba­go Peo­ple’s Par­ty (TPP), the Pro­gres­sive De­mo­c­ra­t­ic Pa­tri­ots (PDP), the In­no­v­a­tive De­mo­c­ra­t­ic Al­liance (IDA), and the Pa­tri­ot­ic Front (PF). The UNC is not con­test­ing in To­ba­go. Who will split from whom?

Prof Hamid Ghany is a Pro­fes­sor of Con­sti­tu­tion­al Af­fairs and Par­lia­men­tary Stud­ies at The Uni­ver­si­ty of the West In­dies (UWI). He was al­so ap­point­ed an Hon­orary Pro­fes­sor of The UWI up­on his re­tire­ment in Oc­to­ber 2021. He con­tin­ues his re­search and pub­li­ca­tions and al­so does some teach­ing at The UWI.